Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
