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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It frequently functions as a type of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the largest resurgence is handed the award. In practice, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or just the greatest shock.

However the current race is fundamentally unique. The pool of candidates is unusually talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division champions declining and recent also-rans rising together. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this turbulent and thrilling year, he's competing with multiple other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his special ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide-open targets consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to conjure big plays out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every decision – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal season, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a normal season!

Where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

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